Markham’s population and employment rate fall behind expected targets

By Steve Pecar, Local Journalism Initiative reporter

Markham’s population is growing at a rate slower than expected.

New data shows that growth has slipped and that the current population of 362,294 won’t grow to expected forecasts which had predicted nearly 400,000 people within the next two years.

A report prepared for the City’s Development Services Committee indicates that Markham’s population has been growing by an average of 2,819 per year since 2016.

Based on this average, the population will miss the 2026 target with a shortfall of about 36,000 people.

The report goes on to suggest that the numbers indicate that future development identified in areas intended for housing intensification could close the population gap and see Markham reach 421,600 by 2031.

The year 2031 is used as a marker because that is when municipalities in Ontario are expected to meet provincially mandated housing targets.

Meanwhile, along with the slower-than-expected population growth, Markham is also behind in its job expectations.

“Markham’s total employment increased by 29,120 jobs from 2011 to 2023 to approximately 184,750 jobs in 2023,” the report reads. “This growth is about 36,750 jobs lower than Markham’s forecasted employment of 221,500 for 2021. To achieve the 2026 forecast, an annual growth of about 23,225 jobs per year would have to occur for the next two years, which is above the 1,700 annual jobs growth between 2011 and 2021.”

While employment numbers are below forecast, the City has been successful in maintaining a healthy job-to-resident ratio, including the goal of one job for every two residents.

Still, despite the current rates of population and employment, Markham’s growth is considered strong in comparison to other York Region municipalities.

The report shows that from 2006 to what is anticipated by 2031, Markham will have accounted for one-quarter of York Region’s population growth and almost one-third of employment growth.

Most of the future population and employment growth is expected to occur in areas already identified for intensification.

These areas are Markham Centre (bounded by Rodick Road on the west, Kennedy Road on the east, Highway 407 on the south and the Highway 7 corridor on the north) and Langstaff Gateway (bounded by Highway 7 and Langstaff Road on the north, Yonge Street on the west, Bayview Avenue on the east, and Holy Cross Cemetery on the south). These areas will see high-density development, such as high-rise condos and commercial buildings that will eventually be served by public transit.