Selling prices could start to grow, real estate board predicts

Home prices in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) continue to trend down year over year, even as the spring real estate market sees an increase in sales. Still, selling prices could level off and even start to grow in the coming months, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

New listings this spring have declined year over year, TRREB reports. As standing inventory has been absorbed, competition between buyers has likely increased in some neighbourhoods, which should see the price trend flatten and ultimately trend upwards in the months ahead, it predicts.

“Spring sales have been stronger than last year, reflecting improved affordability stemming from lower selling prices and borrowing costs,” said TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld. “Sales are forecast to improve further as we move through the second half of this year. Recovery would be further bolstered by positive news on the trade front along with an easing of geopolitical tensions and related uncertainty.”

The MLS Home Price Index (MLS HPI) Composite benchmark was down by 6.7 per cent year-over-year in May 2026. The average selling price, at $1,069,700, was down by 4.6 per cent compared to May 2025. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price was up slightly compared to April 2026 and the MLS HPI Composite edged slightly lower.

The average Toronto (416 region) selling price this year is $1,108,292, a drop from last year’s average selling price of $1,156,246. The average GTA (905 region) selling price is $1,047,890 this year, compared to $1,099,678 in 2025.

The Bank of Canada kept its key interest rate at 2.25 per cent in April and said any changes in the rate could be small if its projections for the economy held true. The next monetary policy decision is on June 10.

“Inventory levels trended lower over the past year, but buyers continued to have substantial negotiating power through the spring, helping with affordability.” TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer said. “Looking ahead, if sales strengthen further relative to listings, selling prices will level off and even start to grow as we move into 2027.”

GTA Realtors reported 6,583 home sales through TRREB’s MLS System in May 2026. That’s an increase of 6.3 per cent compared to May 2025. New listings entered into the MLS System amounted to 17,698. That’s down by 18.9 per cent year-over-year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, May 2026 home sales were up by 10 per cent month-over-month compared to April 2026 and new listings were down by 2.1 per cent, pointing to a monthly tightening of market conditions as well.